← Hobbies Corner DTR Store Championship
Water AlliesTier 1
at Hobbies Corner DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-1-2
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
46.7%
avg ELO -2.1 per match
expected value
51.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.3%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1472
· median 1472
· range 1472–1472
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1196
Q1 1258
Q3 1438
1513
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 21.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 53.5% | +5.5 |
| Fire Aggro | 15.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.9% | -8.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 15.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 10.5% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.0% | -3.2 |
| Norm Tera Silvie | 10.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 5.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 5.3% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 48.4% | -2.6 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Allies decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
